"After a decade of sharp declines, highway fatalities increased
unexpectedly during the first quarter of 2012, according to preliminary
government data – and a warm winter may catch at least some of the
blame.
Traffic deaths surged a substantial 13.5% for the
three-month period, according to a preliminary analysis by the National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration. That’s a significant reversal of
recent trends. Last year, roadway fatalities fell 1.7%, to the lowest
overall total in more than 60 years. And, on a per-mile basis, it was
an all-time record.
For the first quarter of this year, NHTSA
says 7,360 people were called in traffic accidents, up from 6,720 the
year before. If that figure holds it would work out to about 1.10
deaths per 100 million miles driven compared to 0.98 deaths the year
before.
Despite bad winter road conditions in many parts of the
country, the first quarter generally sees a decline in traffic deaths
because people drive less. And, in general, American motorists have
been curtailing driving, in recent years, to compensate for rising fuel
prices.
But there was a 1.4% surge in the number of miles
Americans drove during the first quarter of 2012, and that may have been
encouraged by the unusually mild winter that brought spring and even
summer-like temperatures to much of the country.
Noting the first
quarter was “unseasonably warmer than usual in most areas of the
country,” a NHTSA statement cautioned that, “Consequently, the fatality
rate for the first quarter should not be used to make inferences for the
fatality rate for the whole of 2012.”
Certainly, safety
advocates hope that’s the case. The U.S. traffic death total has been
plunging sharply for the last seven years. As recently as 2005, there
were 43,510 deaths on U.S. roads – a figure that includes pedestrian
fatalities. But last year’s number came in at 32,310, the lowest figure
since 1949. On a per-miles-driven rate it was the lowest number since
the government began keeping records in 1921.
Travel also fell
last year by 1.2%, year-over-year, to 2.963 trillion miles driven by
American motorists. That was the lowest figure since 2003. But
Americans drove an extra 9.7 billion miles during the mild first
quarter, a 1.4% increase over January to March 2011.
NHTSA’s
disconcerting numbers may actually understate the problem. Using its own
data the National Safety Council estimated first-quarter 2012 traffic
deaths rose to 8,170, up from 7,270 a year earlier.
Whatever the
final number, researchers will clearly be examining their data to
determine the precise cause of, most likely, causes. Safety experts have
been worried about increasing problems with driver distraction,
something U.S. Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood has described as
an “epidemic,” responsible for as much as one in 11 fatalities on
American roads."
Source